Antipodean Currencies Strengthen Amid Trade Deal Hopes and Improved Risk Sentiment

The Australian and New Zealand dollars strengthened against major currencies during Asian trading on Monday, as investor sentiment turned positive following renewed optimism over a potential U.S.-China trade deal.

The upbeat mood was sparked by comments from White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, who stated that President Donald Trump is “optimistic” about reaching a deal with China. “The president has made it very clear he’s open to a deal with China,” Leavitt said, while also warning that further retaliation from Beijing would not be in China’s interest. However, two senior U.S. officials told CNN that the U.S. would not initiate talks, emphasizing that Chinese President Xi Jinping would need to request a call.

Adding to the positive momentum, the European Union announced a 90-day suspension of its planned countermeasures in response to U.S. tariffs, further reducing immediate global trade tensions.

Oil prices also rallied, providing additional support for commodity-linked currencies. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery surged $1.43 to $61.50 a barrel, rebounding from a sharp loss seen in the previous session.

Meanwhile, strong Chinese trade data added fuel to the risk-on rally. Exports jumped 12.4% in March—well above the 4.4% forecast—due to front-loaded shipments ahead of expected tariffs. Imports, however, dropped 4.3% year-over-year, reflecting weaker domestic demand. The resulting trade surplus reached $102.6 billion, far surpassing expectations of $74.3 billion.

The Australian dollar rose to a 4-day high of 90.60 yen and reached 10-day highs of 0.6325 against the U.S. dollar and 0.8756 versus the Canadian dollar. It also gained ground against the euro (1.7982) and the New Zealand dollar (1.0799), with resistance levels seen at 0.65 (USD), 0.91 (CAD), 1.70 (EUR), and 1.10 (NZD).

The New Zealand dollar also rallied, hitting a 4-month high of 0.5880 against the greenback and a 10-day high of 83.93 yen. It rose to 1.9385 against the euro, with near-term resistance expected around 0.59 (USD), 85.00 (JPY), and 1.87 (EUR).

Looking ahead, Canadian vehicle and wholesale sales data, as well as U.S. consumer inflation expectations, are due later in the New York session.